Fact, Opinion and Evidence

A text can be entirely true and still be mostly opinion. At B2 the skill is not "is this correct?" but "what kind of statement is this, and what is holding it up?"

Three kinds of sentence

Fact — can be checked against the world:

The scheme cost £4.2 million.

Opinion — a judgement, cannot be checked, only agreed with:

The scheme was a waste of money.

Reasoned claim — an opinion with evidence attached:

The scheme cost £4.2 million and served 300 people, making it poor value compared with the £600,000 alternative.

The third is what good argumentative writing is made of. Exams ask you to tell them apart constantly.

Words that mark an opinion

Evaluative adjectives and adverbs are the giveaway: excellent, disastrous, unacceptable, remarkable, worrying, sadly, fortunately, surprisingly.

Unfortunately, attendance fell by 12%.

The 12% is fact. Unfortunately is the writer telling you how to feel about it.

Words that mark hedged claims

Careful writers rarely state opinions baldly. They hedge:

• may, might, could — possibility
• suggests, indicates, appears to — softer than proves
• arguably, to some extent, in many cases — limits the claim

The data suggest a possible link.

That is two hedges in six words. It is a much weaker statement than the data prove a link — and reading past hedges is one of the most common comprehension mistakes.

The same fact, three framings

Word choice does work that looks like reporting:

Neutral	Sympathetic	Hostile
the protesters	campaigners	a mob
a change in policy	a reform	a U-turn
spending	investment	a bill for taxpayers
people arriving	newcomers	a flood of arrivals
it costs £2m	it costs just £2m	it costs a staggering £2m

Every row describes the same event. Nothing in the right-hand column is factually false, which is exactly why it works.

Statistics that are true and misleading

A number is a fact. What it is doing in the sentence may still be an argument:

• Percentage or absolute? Cases doubled — from 2 to 4, or 2,000 to 4,000?
• "Up to" — savings of up to 40% includes 0%.
• Which average? A "typical" salary changes a lot depending on whether it's the mean or the median.
• Compared with what? Sales are up 15% — on last month, last year, or the forecast?
• Correlation or cause? Sales rose after we changed the logo.
• Survey base: Three-quarters of respondents agreed — how many respondents, and who was asked?

What isn't said

Omission is the hardest thing to spot, because there is nothing on the page to notice. Two questions help:

• Who is missing? A piece about a policy that quotes only officials has a shape.
• What comparison is missing? Waiting times have fallen — since when? Falling since a record high is not the same as falling to a good level.

Attribution laundering

Watch for claims that arrive with no owner:

• It has been suggested that… — by whom?
• Many people believe… — how many, and does it matter?
• Critics say… — which critics?
• Studies show… — which studies?

This construction lets a writer introduce a claim without taking responsibility for it. Once you start noticing it, you see it constantly.

Testing the evidence

When a claim has evidence, ask three questions:

1. Is it relevant? Sales rose after we changed the logo — did the logo do it, or was it the season?
2. Is it representative? Three customers complained — out of how many?
3. Where is it from? Research shows… — whose research, and who paid for it?

A worked example

The new timetable has been a success. Punctuality improved by 4%, and passengers tell us they are happier. Critics claim overcrowding has worsened, but this is hard to measure.

Success — opinion. 4% — fact. Passengers tell us — unverifiable and self-reported. Critics claim… hard to measure — an opposing point raised and quietly dismissed rather than answered.

One more

Alarmingly, energy bills have risen by up to 30% since the reform. Many households now say they are struggling. The government insists the policy is working, though it has been suggested that the full effect will not be seen for years.

Six things doing work: alarmingly (opinion), up to 30% (could be almost anything), many households (unquantified), say they are (self-reported), insists (signals pressure and the writer's doubt), it has been suggested (a claim with no owner). One genuine fact: bills have risen.

Neither kind of sentence is better. Opinion isn't a flaw — an argument is supposed to have a position, and a text of pure facts would have no point. What matters is being able to see which is which, so that you agree with the opinions on purpose rather than absorbing them along with the numbers.

Test yourself

The quiz below asks what kind of statement each sentence is, and how strong it really is.